2010 full of uncertainty

The year 2010 has barely begun, and already it’s shaping up as one many may want to forget before it even gets going.

The economy and the resulting budget crisis will be a major drag this year, according to just about everyone who can count.

State Treasurer Dean Martin has gone on record as saying that as early as this month Arizona may be out of money and credit, and have to start issuing IOU’s instead of checks to employees and vendors. And state workers will, in all likelihood, be joining their private sector brothers and sisters with 5 percent pay cuts starting sometime in the year.

Because the current $1.4 billion deficit and next year’s estimated $3.3 billion shortfall are so large, services and programs that aren’t absolutely critical could get placed on hold, from closing all state parks to reduction in highway maintenance and highway patrol coverage.

Phoenix will also be facing the budget axe. A projected $100 million shortfall could mean at least a hiring freeze for police and fire and will probably result in layoffs of support staff. At best parks and recreation programs and maintenance, what’s left after previous year’s cuts, will be slashed again. Library hours, after-school programs, public transit and just about everything else that doesn’t have a badge could be cut down to the bone, if not outright eliminated as the council attempts to balance the city’s budget.

Councilman Sal DiCiccio understands the severity of the financial crunch and is leaning towards focusing on the key strategic services the city should fund, like public safety, and contracting out or eliminating most of the rest.

“There are non-strategic areas we shouldn’t be in at all,” said DiCiccio, pointing to areas like vehicle maintenance and printing.

Economists say that the economy probably won’t get worse this year, but that it could take years before it gets better.

“Three to four years from now we’ll be doing better than most states in the nation,” said Lee McPheters, an Arizona State University economic professor and researcher at the W.P Carey School of Business.

The challenge will be to hold on until then. And most economist agree that there is little that elected officials can do because Arizona’s future is tied in with the general improvement of the national economy.

Loop 202

The 25-year saga of the $1.9 billion South Mountain Loop 202 will continue on in 2010. Proposed three decades ago, but never built, planning will continue. But with the possibility that the eight-lane highway could be built on Gila River Indian Community land instead of on Pecos Road, the timeline for completion of a draft Environmental Impact Statement will probably be pushed from this summer into fall or early 2011, at best.

In 2009 Eric Anderson, the Maricopa Association of Governments transportation director, who oversees planning for the Valley’s transportation systems, said the Loop 202 was a top priority project. But funding comes from Proposition 400, a half-cent sales tax in Maricopa County dedicated to funding freeway, light rail and street improvement projects, and for almost two years the sales tax revenues raised have been declining, month after month, resulting in a $6 billion shortfall that could grow in 2010.

The scope of the freeway was cut from 10 lanes to eight last year to help cut the cost, but if revenues continue to decline, additional cuts may be needed, further complicating the planning process and dragging out a final decision.

Meanwhile, homeowners along Pecos Road, especially on Redwood Lane, have no idea if their homes will be bought and razed for the freeway or what the future will bring.

Election time

While lawmakers struggle to deal with the budget crisis, they will also be looking over their shoulders at the upcoming elections. And in 2010 the primary comes unusually early, Aug. 24, which means that a small number of voters who aren’t on vacation or dulled into a coma by the heat will decide the slate for the Nov. 2 general election.

In Ahwatukee Foothills longtime state Sen. John Huppenthal is expected to give up his two decades in the Legislature and run for Superintendent of Public Instruction. That will open the way for Rep. John McComish to seek the Senate seat from District 20. That, in turn, will open the way for former representative Bob Robson to return to the state capitol after term limits forced him to not seek re-election two years ago.

The only legislator representing Ahwatukee Foothills hoping to stay in place is the lone Democrat, Rep. Rae Waters, who plans to seek re-election.

And the election will see some challengers looking at a seat in the Legislature including Jeff Dial, who for the third time has formed a campaign committee to run for the House.