Most agree 2009 to be a tough year

There weren't a lot of people who were sad to see 2008 go into the history books, what with the economic and housing meltdowns.

But will 2009 be any better?

"I believe 2009, at least in the city of Phoenix, will be the most difficult year we have ever had," said Councilman Greg Stanton.

But there are some positives on the horizon.

"A year of transition and change," is how Rep. John McComish described 2009, with a new governor in Arizona and a new president in Washington, which could translate into opportunities to get the economy rolling once again.

Chad Blostone, a pilot with US Airways and an Ahwatukee Foothills resident, is cautiously optimistic.

"It will be another tough year, but there are a lot of bright spots in our community," he said, pointing to expansion of the parking facility at the Telegraph Pass trailhead on Desert Foothills Parkway and the proposed purchase of 233 acres of State Trust Land west of 19th Avenue as two examples.

The city is in the unenviable position of having some money and grants specifically dedicated to big-ticket items, like the purchase of the trust land and the parking lot expansion, while at the same time facing a $250 million general fund deficit, due mostly to a steep decline in sales tax revenues that seems to get bigger daily.

He pointed out that most economists say the economy won't pick up until after 2009, although no one is really sure when things will get better.

"What's the old joke, you talk to five economists and you get six different answers," Stanton said.

But the dramatic fall of the Arizona housing market highlights the city and state's reliance on real estate.

"We can't rely on the boom and bust of real-estate. I think now, maybe people will look at the concept of diversity. It's more crystallized in people's minds now," Stanton said. "We have to have a high wage economy and the only way we will achieve that is education and higher education."

Stanton pointed to Ireland, which pulled itself out of a long economic slump by boosting education and attracting high-paying jobs.

The state is also at a crossroads, facing a deficit of more than $1 billion.

McComish said the budget crisis isn't a pothole in the economic road, it's a crater.

"There's no doubt the state budget is in a crisis and it's going to take a lot of hard work on everybody's part to solve it," which will include steep cuts in state government and services, he said. "There's just no way around that."

At the same time, with a new president and governor, change will be inevitable, although it's not clear how any change could impact the economy.

"A lot of talk that there will be a stimulus package that is geared toward the states, but right now it's all talk," McComish said.

But Blostone remains optimistic that the actions taken by Washington to shore up the economy will take root, even while working in an industry that has been hard hit by the economy.

"I'm not saying it will be great, I'm just saying it won't get worse," he said. "I'd like to believe that my employment and the employment of many others, while it may be stressed, won't fail.

"I don't think the challenges we have are any worse than other generations have faced, and not even as bad as some generations faced," Blostone continued, pointing to World War II and the Great Depression.

But everyone seems to agree that, at best, 2009 will be a tough year for most people.

"Hang on, it's going to be a rough ride," McComish said.