Economic recovery is flattening out statewide - Ahwatukee Foothills News: Money

default avatar
Welcome to the site! Login or Signup below.
Logout|My Dashboard

Economic recovery is flattening out statewide

Font Size:
Default font size
Larger font size

Posted: Sunday, May 12, 2013 4:45 pm

Arizona’s economic recovery is flattening out statewide, with job growth outside the Phoenix metro area for this year and next predicted to be anemic.

New figures Thursday from the Arizona Department of Administration forecast the state adding 45,900 jobs this year. That is a drop from the 48,900 for 2012.

And virtually all of that growth — 1.9 percent year over year — is anticipated to be in the Phoenix metro area, which consists of Maricopa and Pinal counties.

Pima County is anticipated to add 3,000 jobs all year. And the other 12 counties will see employment growth of 2,700.

But that’s only half of the economic story.

Fully 40 percent of this year’s Pima job growth and more than half for the rural counties will be in the leisure and hospitality sector, including bars, restaurants and, to a lesser extent, hotels and motels. And Aruna Murthy, the agency’s director of economic analysis, acknowledged these are among the lowest paying jobs in the state.

Murthy’s May 9 forecast is a bit more pessimistic than the one she made just last October. At that time she figured Arizona would add 11,400 more jobs.

What happened since then, she said, is the economy got hit by a couple of trucks.

One is the hike in federal payroll taxes. That left consumers with less money in their paychecks — and less to spend.

The other is the sequestration of federal dollars, resulting in mandatory spending cuts. And Murthy said Arizona is particularly sensitive to what goes on in Washington, with 6.7 percent of the state gross domestic product coming from federal spending.

She said Southern Arizona is going to be hit particularly hard with dependence not only on military bases and the civilian employment that goes with them but also the presence of aerospace companies that are heavily dependent on federal spending.

All that has a ripple effect: smaller paychecks and slower job growth means less money for consumers to spend. And Murthy said that, outside the Phoenix metro area, growth in the retail trade sector this year looks “pathetic.”

The one saving factor for Pima County appears to be government employment. Murthy predicts that will grow by about 1,200 this year, with much of that due to the presence of the University of Arizona.

Murthy’s report underscores the ongoing trend where the Phoenix area continues to have an outsized share of the Arizona economy.

She figures of the jobs to be added this year, 40,200 of them will be in Maricopa and Pinal counties. That’s nearly 88 percent of new workers for two counties that comprise just about 66 percent of the current population.

And the forecast for 2014 is little different: 51,800 new jobs for Arizona, with just 3,900 of them in Pima County and 4,600 for the balance of the state.

One brighter sign is a slow resurgence in the number of permits for new single family houses.

Murthy said that should help the state’s beleaguered construction industry.

She forecasts employment in that sector should hit 127,900 by the end of 2014, up 12,200 over two years. But that still would leave the number of people working in construction at just 52 percent of when it hit its peak in June 2006.

Here, too, the lion’s share is going to be in the Phoenix area.

Murthy also cautioned that international factors could affect her predictions. That includes slowing growth in China and Latin America, which would reduce the demand for U.S. exports.

She also is keeping an eye on the debt crisis in Europe. But Murthy said Arizona’s exposure to those problems is low as companies here export little to countries in the European Union.


Employment Forecast

New jobs:

Area / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013* / 2014*

Statewide / (-46,800) / 25,600 / 48,900 / 45,900 / 51,800

Phoenix metro+ / (-33,100) / 25,200 / 41,500 / 40,200 / 43,200

Tucson metro / (-7,800) / 1,500 / 5,300 / 3,000 / 3,900

Balance of state / (-5,900) / (1,100) / 2,100 / 2,700 / 4,600

+ Maricopa and Pinal counties

* Forecast

• Source: Arizona Department of Administration


Predicted 2013 job growth

Sector / Statewide / Valley* / Tucson / Rest of state

Total / 45,900 / 40,200 / 300 / 2,700 /

Manufacturing / 2,400 / 2,200 / (-100) / 300

Natural resources & mining / 600 / 300 / 200 / 200

Construction / 6,700 / 5,300 / 1,000 / 400

Trade, transportation, utilities / 6,300 / 7,000 / 200 / (-900)

Information / 700 / 700 / (-100) / 100

Financial activities / 5,800 / 5,000 / 400 / 400

Professional & business services / 6,200 / 6,400 / (-800) / 600

Private education & health services / 5,700 /4,700 / 0 / 1,000

Leisure & hospitality / 7,900 / 5,300 / 1,200 / 1,400

Other services / (-400) / 0 / (-300) / (-200)

Government including public education / 3,900 / 3,500 / 1,200 / (-700)

* Maricopa and Pinal counties

• Source: Arizona Department of Administration

More about

More about

More about

  • Discuss

Texas, facing a lawsuit, makes it easier for U.S.-born children of immigrants to get birth certificates

Last year, a group of Central American and Mexican immigrant parents sued Texas in federal court, claiming that the state had denied their chi…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 11:03 pm @…

Hiker rescues up in 2016; hundreds helped off Valley mountains so far

PHOENIX - It's a desperate situation that frankly firefighters are seeing way too often. "I think that this year we've just had some real trag…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 10:29 pm @…

Protests Over Western Troops Threaten Libyan 'Unity' Government

Print Libya's UN-backed Government Condemns France Following Crash Three French Soldiers Killed During Operation in Libya Islamist-backed demo…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 9:36 pm @…

Phoenix Serial Street Shooter likely using multiple vehicles

PHOENIX - Phoenix police said they are getting new details and tips about a serial shooter connected to seven murders . But investigators can’…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 8:58 pm @…

Group behind $12/hour minimum wage initiative wants lawsuit dropped

Arizona Healthy Working Families, the group behind a ballot initiative to make the state's minimum wage $12 an hour by 2020 , wants to dismiss…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 8:35 pm @…

Larry Fitzgerald remembers Dennis Green in essay

Dennis Green was more than just a football coach. In a Player’s Tribune piece written by Larry Fitzgerald, the wide receiver recalls his longt…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 8:28 pm @…

Praising Kaine: How Clinton's choice of a widely respected senator drives a deep wedge into the GOP

Hillary Clinton announced her selection of Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate late on Friday evening, and something incredible has al…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 8:27 pm @…

Arizona becomes the last state to provide health insurance to low-income children

Arizona is rejoining a children's health insurance program for low and middle-income families, becoming the last state in the union to provide…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 7:58 pm @…

The WNBA’s Black Lives Matter Protest Has Set a New Standard for Sports Activism

This month, the WNBA has become the site of one of the most united, persistent political statements in sports history. In recent weeks, entire…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 7:31 pm @…

In Opinion: Chances of survival for a Democratic Senate are slim

This article first appeared on the Dorf on Law site. Many Democrats are anticipating a big night on November 8.   Although the inevitable nois…

Published: July 25, 2016 - 7:30 pm @…

Facebook on Facebook

Twitter on Twitter


Subscribe to via RSS

RSS Feeds


Most Popular

Online poll