Transportation assumptions need to change -- now

The June 11 Ahwatukee Foothills News column, "What is Peak Oil?" describes the mathematics of a finite global oil supply relative to the seeming relentless demand from growing world economies like India and China. The editorial, however, fails to point out the consequences of Peak Oil, which, in a word, are frightening.

Leading world and economic experts predict a very dark period, worse than the Great Depression. A simple Google search of "peak oil" will provide the reader with some idea of the painful transition to life after cheap oil, which is, unfortunately, quite grim.

America, with merely 5 percent of the world's population and just 3 percent of the world's oil reserves, consumes 25 percent of the world's oil. These statistics illustrate the folly of more drilling, whether offshore or in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. ANWR contains, at best, 16 billion barrels, a drop in the bucket considering current global consumption of more than 85 million barrels a day. It will take 10 years to bring oil to the pumps and it won't last a year.

There just isn't enough oil to support the "modern society" we have come to know and love, which is a 100-year "blip" in history, and we are about to leave it behind. We are simply running out. Russian and Mexico are already depleting reserves. The connection between oil and our food supply (transport, ammonia production) is so tight we have already seen hikes.

The only real solution to the oil situation is to reduce consumption, drastically, starting right now, in America.

The market price of oil will force some American conservation to occur, as will advances in technology such as plug-in hybrid cars. But that won't stop increasing global consumption, which is the rub, and why we won't see lower prices. Thus, Peak Oil changes all the lofty projections for the future; creating negative growth, consolidation and reduction, and a lot less traffic when fuel is $12 a gallon and rationed in 10 years, as many experts are predicting.

The Maricopa Association of Governments needs to start now to properly prepare the future transportation needs of the Valley. Take the billions proposed to build the western portion of the Loop 202 on Pecos Road and invest it in additional light rail lines from Queen Creek to Scottsdale, and from Sun City to Fountain Hills. Build the much-needed, high-speed commuter rail from Tucson to Phoenix, then extend it west out to Buckeye. Do it now while oil is "cheap." Massively increase the Rapid Bus system, which uses relatively cheap natural gas.

Freeways? Interstate 10 today will easily handle the reduced traffic 10 years from now, since most of the trucks will be government food transport bringing in just the basic foodstuffs to sustain the shrinking Valley population.

MAG needs to do the right thing, for all of the citizens in the Valley, starting right now. This invitation applies to the governor and state and city governments. All it takes is leadership, vision and a desire to live more simply, from each of us.

Joe Debbins has a doctorate in biophysics, has lived in Lakewood for three years with his wife Carmi and three children, Gabrielle, Micheal and Rafael. He advocates the "no build" alternative for the South Mountain Loop 202, preferring to spend taxpayer billions on public transport. Most days he takes his bike and the Rapid Bus to work downtown at St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center.